Introduction
Recently, a friend who I very much respect posted a piece on gun ownership ≠ gun crime. Their argument was one of culture making a much more substantial impact. While that is undoubtedly true to a point - weapons mean more dangerous stuff can happen.
To illustrate this - I've compared Ontario (CA) and New York State (US).
Roughly we see 2:1 ratio of gun ownership in New York to Ontario and a roughly similar 2:1 gun crime rate.
But don't take my word for it - lets use some open source statistics! (N.B. US gun ownership rates are calculated by media reports, given that the US government doesn't have proper recording and tracking of firearm sales - cos y'know - freedom).
To illustrate this - I've compared Ontario (CA) and New York State (US).
Roughly we see 2:1 ratio of gun ownership in New York to Ontario and a roughly similar 2:1 gun crime rate.
But don't take my word for it - lets use some open source statistics! (N.B. US gun ownership rates are calculated by media reports, given that the US government doesn't have proper recording and tracking of firearm sales - cos y'know - freedom).
US vs Canada
- 32% of American households (roughly 1/9 people)[1] owns a gun: http://qz.com/437015/mapped-the-us-states-with-the-most-gun-owners-and-most-gun-deaths/
- 1/15 Canadians owns a gun: http://www.rcmp-grc.gc.ca/cfp-pcaf/facts-faits/index-eng.htm
- US households are on average 2.58 people: https://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-14.pdf
But let's be generous and say that's 3 people (it makes the maths easier too), meaning that approximately 1/9 people in the US owns a gun.
This still doesn't tell us much of use. The 2 countries are pretty varied across their provinces / states.
So let's start factoring in urbanisation and culture.
Gun ownership in Canada is also extremely low (comparatively) in the urbanised provinces. http://www.rcmp-grc.gc.ca/cfp-pcaf/facts-faits/index-eng.htm
The more rural a population, the more guns.
The US sees a similar trend - but we still see significantly higher gun ownership in urbanised states: http://www.businessinsider.com/gun-ownership-by-state-2015-7?IR=T
Excluding Rhode Island and Delaware (because their population is so low) the lowest rate of gun ownership is New York (one of the most populous states, and the 3rd highest rate of gun ownership at 10.3%).
Comparative Jurisdictions
Ontario and NY state are not totally unreasonable to compare.
They both have a lot of urban population, but also a significant amount of rural population. They're geographically proximate, and have significant overlapping history / culture. They also have pretty similar legal requirements for gun ownership, with New York having the NY SAFE ACT and Ontario the Firearms Act.
Ontario has 4,362 gun (licences) per 100,000 people (the RCMP's data again). New York meanwhile can be calculated to have approximately 10,000 per 100,000 by going off the population statistics matched against ownership rates[2].
So ownership of guns to people is roughly 2:1 comparing New York State to Ontario.
They both have a lot of urban population, but also a significant amount of rural population. They're geographically proximate, and have significant overlapping history / culture. They also have pretty similar legal requirements for gun ownership, with New York having the NY SAFE ACT and Ontario the Firearms Act.
Ontario has 4,362 gun (licences) per 100,000 people (the RCMP's data again). New York meanwhile can be calculated to have approximately 10,000 per 100,000 by going off the population statistics matched against ownership rates[2].
So ownership of guns to people is roughly 2:1 comparing New York State to Ontario.
Types of Gun
OK sure, we don't know what types of guns are owned in NY vs Ontario.
Handguns are obviously way easier to use for crimes (fit of pique shooting a spouse/partner - the highest rate of gun-shot wounds [Jeremy Clarkson - a History of the Gun]) and it's possible to get such firearms in both Ontario and New York, although awkwardly. New York has had bans and now heavy restrictions, whilst Canada requires a restricted firearms licence, which is roughly 1/4 of the gun licences in Canada. Again (this is a bit of a generalisation) the two are probably not uncomparable therefore in the types of guns being owned, issued, and used between our comparative jurisdictions.
Handguns are obviously way easier to use for crimes (fit of pique shooting a spouse/partner - the highest rate of gun-shot wounds [Jeremy Clarkson - a History of the Gun]) and it's possible to get such firearms in both Ontario and New York, although awkwardly. New York has had bans and now heavy restrictions, whilst Canada requires a restricted firearms licence, which is roughly 1/4 of the gun licences in Canada. Again (this is a bit of a generalisation) the two are probably not uncomparable therefore in the types of guns being owned, issued, and used between our comparative jurisdictions.
Crime Rates
Now to look at the crime rates to see if the theory works out of gun ownership = gun crime.
Ontario has approximately 17 crimes involving a gun per 100,000 per annum: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/85-002-x/2014001/article/11925-eng.htm
In New York State - there were 8,428 reported gun crimes in 2014: http://www.criminaljustice.ny.gov/crimnet/ojsa/greenbook.pdf - meaning we have about 42 crimes per 100,000. That makes the crime rates to ownership rates (roughly) equal. Double the amount of guns per head = double the amount of crimes per head.
Ontario has approximately 17 crimes involving a gun per 100,000 per annum: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/85-002-x/2014001/article/11925-eng.htm
In New York State - there were 8,428 reported gun crimes in 2014: http://www.criminaljustice.ny.gov/crimnet/ojsa/greenbook.pdf - meaning we have about 42 crimes per 100,000. That makes the crime rates to ownership rates (roughly) equal. Double the amount of guns per head = double the amount of crimes per head.
Conclusion
In short - comparing 2 not incomparable jurisdictions in Canada and the US, we find that ownership is about double in one than the other, and that violent crime matches that.
Sure we're rounding numbers here and making generalisations - but as a rough hypothesis to go by, with doing maths on the back of a napkin - the point stands up to scrutiny: more guns = more gun crime.
Footnotes
[1] US households are on average 2.58 people: https://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-14.pdf but let's be generous and say that's 3 people (it makes the maths easier too), meaning that approximately 1/9 people in the US owns a gun.
[2] 10.3% gun ownership in a population of 19.75million
Sure we're rounding numbers here and making generalisations - but as a rough hypothesis to go by, with doing maths on the back of a napkin - the point stands up to scrutiny: more guns = more gun crime.
Footnotes
[1] US households are on average 2.58 people: https://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-14.pdf but let's be generous and say that's 3 people (it makes the maths easier too), meaning that approximately 1/9 people in the US owns a gun.
[2] 10.3% gun ownership in a population of 19.75million